The Nation -- President Obama says he has held substantial talks with House Speaker John Boehner about raising the debt ceiling, and the Democratic president suggests that he has felt at numerous turns as if he and the Republican speaker were on the verge doing a deal.
But the deal never quite happens.
It?s not that Boehner is a bait-and-switch artist, teasing the president along and then substituting a new plan at the last minute. In fact, there?s nothing Boehner would like better than to cut the deal with Obama and get back to the golf course.
Boehner?s fight isn?t with the president.
It is with his own caucus, and with a Republican base that is prepared to punish anyone who makes nice with Obama. And Thursday night?s decisions to delay scheduled House votes on Boehner?s plan to temporarily raise the debt ceiling in return for deep spending cuts suggests that the extremists have the upper hand.
The trouble, as has become all too evident, is that Boehner has never been fully in charge of the House Republican Caucus. As Obama explains?accurately, if not beneficially for the Speaker: ?I think Speaker Boehner has been very sincere about trying to do something big. I think he?d like to do something big. His politics within his caucus are very difficult?you?re right. And this is part of the problem with a political process where folks are rewarded for saying irresponsible things to win elections or obtain short-term political gain, when we actually are in a position to try to do something hard we haven?t always laid the groundwork for.?
Yes, yes, of course, House Speakers are supposed to be the bosses of the chamber. But, even by the unusually low standards that are going to apply when it comes to early-twenty-first-century Republican House Speakers?two words: Denny Hastert?Boehner is going to rate as a footnote.
Boehner is a placeholder Speaker. He did not climb the leadership ladder with his style or strength. He did so by hanging around, collecting the checks and maintaining the pay-to-play machine in a manner that generally satisfied Wall Street and rank-and-file members. But no one expected anything more than muddling management from Boehner, and now he is struggling to deliver even that.
Pressured by his caucus to fight with the president?rather than accept the overly generous concessions the White House was placed on the table ? Boehner has struggled to come up with his own plan for making enough cuts to satisfy the Republican base while still securing the necessary votes to raise the for debt ceiling by?August 2. But the erstwhile Speaker got the math wrong, earning a bad report from the Congressional Budget Office and squandering whatever confidence he might have hoped to inspire.
Now Boehner is resorting to bluster, announcing on right-wing talk radio that he is telling Republican House members to ?get your asses in line? behind the new plan that he is still trying to cobble together, and that has no chance of winning the approval of the Democrats who control the Senate?let alone the president.
After several days of lining up asses, however, Boehner admitted Thursday that ?we don?t have the votes.?
The Speaker says he?ll get the votes eventually. But the running ?whip list? of GOP House members argues against that fantasy, If House Democrats hold firm, Boehner can afford to lose only twenty-three Republicans. The ?whip list? identifies at 25 members who are opposed (firmly or leaning that way) and 32 more who are uncertain about whether they want to follow the Speaker?s lead.
Translation: Boehner does not have the votes, and he is unlikely to get them for any plan to raise the debt ceiling that does not attract substantial Democratic support.
Unfortunately for the Speaker, it is easier to call for asses to ?get in line? than to make it happen. As the Boehner admits, there are some members of his caucus who prefer ?chaos? to compromise?on the theory that if things get bad enough (think spiking mortgage and credit-card rates, to start) they might be able to force the White House to agree to a balanced budget amendment and other schemes to do away with Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security
But for all Boehner?s bluster, the most prominent member of the caucus Boehner supposedly leads is not budging.
Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, who was rejected earlier this year as a contender for a low-level leadership position in the caucus, is now a top-tier contender for the 2012 Republican presidetial nomination.
Bachmann is the unofficial chair of the GOP?s chaos crisis. She promises to vote against any increase in the debt ceiling?even if that increase comes as part of an agreement that concedes most major issues to the GOP.
?This Republican will not vote to raise the debt ceiling,? says Bachmann. ?My colleagues will have to come to their own conclusion.?
Bachmann may be difficult, but she is not dumb. She knows that the debt ceiling fight is really the first stage of the 2012 Republican presidential contest.
While Boehner may be inclined toward compromise on the debt ceiling issue, the Republican base?ginned up by Rush, Limbaugh, Glenn Beck and various and sundry Fox ?personalities??thinks ?compromise? is a four-letter word.
Standing with Boehner gets Bachmann nothing?especially when another contender, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, is staking out an absolutist stance.
Standing against Boehner scores points with the base. And, going into the Iowa ?Straw Poll??a key test of sentiments among first-caucus-state Republicans?Bachmann is not about to answer the Speaker?s ?get your asses in line? call.
Neither are other Republicans who are thinking about 2012 party primaries for House and Senate seats. These days, the GOP is more of a fight club than a Grand Old Party. And any member who gets his or her ?ass in line? with Boehner might find it tossed out at the next election.
Even as Boehner wrangles caucus members in Washington, Bachmann is roaming around Iowa declaring that the Speaker?s ?premises are wrong.? The grassroots Republicans that she speaks to are cheering Bachmann on.
That?s a big problem for Boehner, because undecided Republicans in the House find themselves faced with a choice between the Speaker?s ?get your asses in line? call and the sweet sound of the base cheering for Bachmann?s absolutism?and chaos.
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